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A wave of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is anticipated in 2025, according to Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas.
In his latest newsletter, published Tuesday, Balchunas outlined a projected timeline for approvals, shaped by shifting SEC policies and evolving market dynamics.
“We expect a wave of cryptocurrency ETFs next year, albeit not all at once.” Balchunas noted. “First out is likely the BTC and ETH combo ETFs, then prob Litecoin (because its fork of BTC = commodity), then HBAR (because its not labeled security), and then XRP/Solana (which have been labeled securities in pending lawsuits),” added Balchunas.
The analyst further reflected on the SEC’s ongoing stance toward crypto regulation, particularly its handling of XRP and Solana, with both tokens embroiled in legal battles over their classification as securities.
The SEC’s case against Ripple, initiated in December 2020, directly targets XRP, while Solana has also been labeled an unregistered security in the agency’s lawsuits against Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken. Balchunas explained that these legal issues will delay the approval of XRP and Solana ETFs, stating, “Even then, complex legal issues around these tokens and others relating to their status as securities may need to be resolved.”
However, in contrast, Litecoin and Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) may face fewer hurdles. He noted that Litecoin, a Bitcoin fork, is more likely to be viewed by regulators as a commodity rather than a security. Similarly, HBAR has not been labeled a security by the SEC, which improves its odds for approval. Balchunas pointed out that “new issuer Canary is the only filer for a Litecoin or HBAR ETF,” though he acknowledged the uncertainty around investor demand for these funds.
Balchunas has also speculated on the potential emergence of more unconventional ETFs. Last month, he noted, “12/31 feels like a good over/under date for Doge filing,” suggesting that even a Dogecoin ETF could materialize before the year ends.
That said, the broader crypto ETF landscape is also evolving. Ethereum ETFs approved by the SEC as commodity-based funds offer potential issuers a model to challenge the security status of other tokens. However, analysts warn that progress on new crypto ETFs remains unlikely under the current SEC leadership. As ETFStore President Nate Geraci remarked earlier this month, “There will be no movement on spot crypto ETF applications until new management comes in.”
Meanwhile, the timeline for Solana ETFs is particularly contentious. Earlier this month, the SEC rejected two of five pending Solana ETF applications, prompting predictions that further action will wait until the expected leadership changes in 2025.
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