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– Ontario Premier Ford in Washington to talk tariffs
– Oil glut for 2025 predicted by IEA
– USD trading with bearish bias ahead of PPI data,
USDCAD: open 1.4370, overnight range 1.4360-1.4405, close 1.4369, WTI 67.24, Gold 2947.81
The Bank of Canada delivered a widely anticipated 25 bps rate cut, bringing its benchmark rate to 2.75%. The cautious tone accompanying the decision was no surprise, as market attention remains locked on Trump and his escalating trade war.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford finds himself in Washington today, at the invitation of Howard Lutnik after imposing a 25% surcharge on Ontario’s electricity exports to the US.
The G-7 Foreign Ministers will convene in Charlevoix, Quebec, today, with the US trade war expected to dominate the agenda.
WTI crude prices pulled back to $67.12 from $67.94 following an Energy Information Agency (EIA) warning that global oil supply in 2025 is on track to outstrip demand by 600,000 barrels per day—and that’s the optimistic scenario. If OPEC and Russia continue exceeding output quotas, the surplus could swell by another 400,000 bpd. Adding to the pressure, Trump’s tariffs are expected to dampen global demand, keeping prices on the defensive.
Mark Carney is set to be sworn in as Prime Minister on Friday, and the latest Leger Poll suggests a dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives if an election were held today.
EURUSD traded within a 1.0860-1.0898 range overnight, maintaining a defensive posture das the German parliament debates the proposal to relax debt constraints. Eurozone industrial production slightly outperformed expectations but had no meaningful impact on the currency.
GBPUSD drifted between 1.2942 and 1.2974, showing little directional momentum ahead of Friday’s data releases, which includes Manufacturing PMI, Industrial Production, Trade balance, and January GDP figures. The UK RICS Housing Survey came in softer than forecast, rising by just 11 compared to 21 in January. The decline was attributed to growing concerns over inflationary pressures.
USDJPY traded sideways in a 147.58-148.37band with gains capped by reports that the Bank of Japan is hesitant to intervene in the bond market despite rising yields. Governor Ueda acknowledged that inflation remains below the 2.0% target but expressed confidence that it will rebound as economic conditions improve.
AUDUSD ranged from 0.6284 to 0.6334, rallying during the Asian session before retracing in Europe, ultimately opening in New York with minimal change from the previous day. The risk-off sentiment fueled by Trump’s tariff policies continues to limit upside potential for the currency.
Todays US data includes weekly jobless claim and PPI.
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